The Dirk Grande Finale? Or A Super-Finish? (Finals Overview)

I like to think of this as the “Len just eats his crow now and gets it over with” edition of my Finals preview. Normally, I wouldn’t be writing this so soon. But between the boredom I’m presently faced with just before I head out the door for work and the fact that both of these Conference Final series have been absolute mismatches (it’s a wonder they both weren’t sweeps) made this easy on me. We’ve learned quite a lot during the postseason thus far have we not? For starters…

No Country For Old Champs
– The three teams which accounted for more than 75% of the titles won over the last decade (Spurs, Lakers, Celtics) were all gone before the Conference Finals. The Spurs were the only team that didn’t get out of the first round, while the Celts and Lakers were exposed as too old and possibly in the case of the Lakers, not quite as intimidating as previously thought. Memphis more than made its case for a permanent seat at the table out West, while we’re wondering if Westbrook and Durant are either The Next Great Thing together or if it’s a “this team isn’t big enough for the both of us” type of deal.

The Regular Season MVP Award Is Just That…A Regular Season Award.
– While this hasn’t been a situation akin to 1995 where Olajuwon seemingly went out of his way to embarass, humiliate and eviscerate David Robinson…facts are facts. Derrick Rose got more out of his team than he was really meant to. Thibodeau to his credit, got more out of them than he was supposed to in his first year. But now it seems like against a Two Man Band from South Beach, they seem all kinds of out of sorts. They can’t close games the way they did in the previous two rounds and Miami’s closing out with frightening efficiency. If there’s any disappointment on either Wade or LeBron for netting any legitimate MVP consideration, they seem to be taking it out on Chicago in this series. In any event, since I don’t forsee a three game losing streak in Miami’s immediate future, looks like D-Rose gets to join a very long list of MVPs that won’t add NBA Champion to his resume in the same year.

The Rise of Dirkzilla
– Anyone who has read my stuff for a while, knows I haven’t held Dirk Nowitzki in the highest regard. I believed that he wasn’t a guy you could build a franchise around, definitely not a guy you could win a championship with. I reamed him when he won MVP in 2007 over Nash, even went as far as to say Nash was de facto MVP which was augmented by Dirk’s egg that was laid against Nellie and his Warriors. (Ironic how the last two #1 seeds to lose in the first round are out of Texas.) I initially didn’t have Dallas beating the Lake Show. But then Dirkzilla appeared, eviscerated the Lake Show’s vaunted frontline and now he’s making OKC look too young and too green to run with the former Western Conference Champions.

Dirkzilla is finally showing signs that he is without question, the toughest one on one matchup in the Association. Whenever he wants his shot, he’ll get it. However he wants to do it, he’ll get it done. He and Jason Terry are the only holdovers from 2006 & 2007 respectively. Which leads me to my final point…or more like equation so to speak…
Dirkzilla > South Beach Superfriends
– Yes, it’s just that simple. The NBA Finals is not going to be the forgone conclusion that most believe with the Superfriends putting Dirkzilla down and claiming the first of their many titles. Oh no. Dirkzilla is far superior than Bosh Spice or any other big dummy that’s sent his way to be cut down like a piece of grass. Marion should do a reasonably good job of running with LeBron and I’m just guessing that they’ll throw a plethora of bodies at Wade. Okay, let me put it another way…

If any of the Big Two Plus An Occasional One are off, who’s coming off the bench to lift them? Or even better still, who has in this postseason? Flip that around to Dallas and there’s quite a few candidates. There’s the aforementioned Jason Terry, best Sixth Man left in this postseason. There’s Jose Juan Barea, or as I’m calling him, Homeless Man’s Tony Parker mixed with Ginobili. Oh and y’all remember Peja Stojakovic? Sharpshooter that was a key cog in Sacto’s runs 9, 10 years ago? He’s coming off the bench now, just ask Los Angeles about him. And what’s nuts is, there are probably a couple of names I’m forgetting. Dallas has a bench full of capable bodies, while Miami’s got a bunch of dead weight that to this point, haven’t been able to really be properly exposed as it were. Thanks due in part to all the heavy lifting that LeBron, Wade & Bosh have done.

In about two weeks, that ENDS. Dallas is the overall, complete unit that can and will expose the flaws in Miami’s half-ass plan. “If it’s so half-ass, how come they’re 4 wins away from the Championship?” I’ll tell ya how…

A) AAU Philly wasn’t much of a threat.
B) (Probably biggest of them all…) Boston gave away its hold on the conference when it sent Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson away for Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic. And if anyone needs any more evidence of how important he was, just ask Boston’s G-4 unit how their time off has been. When all were healthy in the postseason, they NEVER LOST A SERIES.
C) Chicago took over for Cleveland as the “not quite ready for prime time players”. Which is a shame really, because I seriously thought they’d be the team to put Miami down. But once Miami locked in on Rose and forced others to do something, others did little to nothing. Or when they did, as Boozer and Deng have the last two games…they couldn’t stop shooting themselves in the foot and costing themselves games late that they normally win going away.

Miami to this point, has gotten by on a young practice squad, a team that was exposed as being too old for the yard anymore and now the conference’s “best” that came up lame when it needed to man up the most. Bosh is still at best, the most overpaid cat in the Association not named Joe Johnson aka Allan Houston 2.0 (yeah, I went there). As insanely talented as LeBron is, I respect him to the sum of ZERO for taking the easy way out. For all of the “mental notes” he has taken, guess what Bron Bron? You’re coming up on a big seven footer that’s about to have your boy Bosh for breakfast with a little Haslem Ham on the side. You’re coming up on a big German who has suddenly developed a nasty streak that not even I, who has been a huge Dirk basher since 2006, could see coming. And what’s more, his unit’s more motivated by past failures than your crew is. Kidd’s haunted by two failures in the Finals in 2002 and 2003 respectively, not to mention the subsequent meltdown in 2004 that cost them another trip back. Peja’s exorcised his Laker demons, now seeks his first ring EVER. The Matrix looks to get a ring on his finger to make up for all the years in Phoenix in which he fell oh so short. Oh and the two most important Mavs of them all? The only two holdovers from their last trip here are just motivated by two simple numbers.

2006. 4 straight losses after having a 2-0 series lead.

Dirk is so focused, if he could’ve cut out on Doris Burke earlier than he did, I believe he would have. And ya know what? Len Cosell LOVES IT. Hence why Len Cosell has dubbed Nowitski, previously No-win-ski, Dirkzilla. Just like Godzilla, Dirk’s taking no prisoners. And that’s why in a postseason where very little has gone as Len’s predicted, I’m placing it all on Blue. Mav Blue. Cubes over Riles. Carlisle over Spo. Dirkzilla & The Blue Wrecking Crew over The South Beach Superfriends. Come on, we gotta have the good guys win out in the end. Right? RIGHT?!

Len’s 2 Games In Playoff Primer (NBA Playoff Dealie)

I figured the song “No Country For Young Men” was the perfect track to base my “late as usual” Playoff Primer on. So far, there are at least four teams in 0-2 holes. Two of which are probably waiting on their last rites to be read, the other two could get new life going home. I’ll let you figure out who’s who. Now for some quick hits on the rest of these first round series and who will be in the Finals.

San Antonio/AAU Memphis
– Memphis figured out a way to eek out Game 1 after RJ bricked a wide open 3 to tie it. We’ll see if AAU Memphis is high off its own supply when they tip for Game 2. AAU Memphis showed some serious backbone by losing their last game to ensure they got the Spurs and honestly…they’re fucking with the principal that don’t like students.

Spurs in 5.

Thundercats/Rich & Creamys
– The Thundercats are really, really good. They’re the team I look at and see running the West for a long time to come, especially once the Spurs & Lakers go by the wayside. I’d even wager to say they can make a powerful statement that the future is now if they can send both of those bluebloods home for an earlier than expected Spring Break. Sadly for Denver, you gotta have an Alpha Dog at this time of the year to survive. The “All For One, One For All” thing doesn’t work out so well and Denver simply cannot run with OKC in this series.

Thunder in 6, feasibly 7.

LA/NO
– So the Hornets stung Kobe in Game 1. I’m frightened for them in Game 2. Either Kobe wakes up and puts the Bee Boys at the bottom of his sneaker on his way to New Orleans or they’re gonna have to really do a spin job as we wait for Game 3. I’m not seeing the Lake Show getting victimized by CP3 again, so let’s keep it simple here.

Lake Show in 5. Lakers be Redd Foxx, Hornets are that Big Dummy.

Team Dirk/Rip City
– So far, Dallas has held serve at home. Portland’s a seriously tough place to play a playoff game if you’re not in Rip City colors. I like Portland getting back in this series at home, but this is where homecourt comes into play. Unless you can get a game on your opponent’s home floor and you don’t have homecourt advantage, get where I’m going here? This could feasibly end in a sweep if McMillan can’t get the right buttons pressed to stem this Blue Mav Rush or it could go the distance.

I’ll bank on it going the distance and here’s a shocker…

Dallas in 7.

East…oy.

NoHeatos/AAU Philly
– Usually I don’t like 3 on 5 odds, but when it’s Miami’s Two & A Half Men against Philly’s Ph-ive…Miami’s got the edge. If Miami doesn’t sweep this squad…you fill in the rest.

Chicago/AAU Indiana
– If Derrick Rose isn’t your undisputed MVP…you’re either LeBron’s mom or you haven’t watched a lick of basketball.

Chicago in 5, I see the Pacers getting one at home. (If Rose goes in here and shuts it down…whoa.)

Orlando/Atlanta
– I’ll attribute Game 1 to the car needing to be warmed up and Atlanta pounced. Game 2 seems about right for what I believe this series to be. Atlanta has no one to stop Dwight Howard and is it just me, or is it with each passing game his offensive repetoire seems more “Dream-ish”? Working with Olajuwon has helped him, Orlando’s probably the only team that’s feasibly stopping Chicago from reaching the Finals again. Seriously.

Orlando in 6.

Boston/New York
– Same Script, Different Cast definitely sums up the first two in Boston, cause the result was the same. Boston pulls victory from the jaws of defeat, New York…wow. Game 1, Carmelo takes a three from the Turnpike…then in Game 2 Jared Jeffries gives up the winning bucket then gives away the turnover that seals it. My Boy Melo, was lights out. But if Amare’s health isn’t up to snuff and they can’t get Billups back, this ends in NY over the weekend in a sweep. Which most likely means the end of Basketball’s Mad Scientist, because New Yorkers aren’t paying to see the Knicks be a first round out in the Spring.

Going home could swing this back to Boston, but I remain set on the notion that the C’s gave up the piece that would’ve gotten them back to the Finals. They can get by New York and Miami without Perk in the middle. Orlando or Chicago…not so much. Rare you see a team shut the window on itself the way Boston has.

Celts in 5.

The Melo Halfway Column (NBA All-Star/Trade/2nd Half Outlook)

“There are two tragedies in the world. Not getting what you want…and getting it.”

It’s funny that Carmelo Anthony sparks my fire to start writing my first NBA column since the Preview and I give ye my word, this probably won’t be very long. Three things to cover, Melo, The East & The West. First, Carmelo. Let’s not get it twisted, Carmelo’s a Top 5 talent. He has not missed the playoffs in his career, he has 13 game winning shots with under 10 seconds left to play in his career. He has averaged at LEAST 20 a game in every season since 2003. He was all the Nuggets have and now, Denver joins Toronto and Cleveland as franchises that have been decimated by departures of their franchise player. For Denver, you get younger (Galinari and Felton figure to start right away, but they’re all but done for as a playoff threat out West) and not much better. (In their defense, they got a lot more for Melo than either city got for LBJ & Bosh combined.) New York gets another star, but essentially turns into a clone of the Heat, only with a slightly more formidable starting lineup (cause the Knicks actually had pieces around Amare that were starting to emerge, but most of those were sent to Nuggetland.). When a trade like this gets made, you have to ask the following questions…

1) Are you any better now than you were before? In short, does this propel you from a 1st round TKO to a team that can seriously disrupt things in the playoffs?
– The answer here, is no. The Knicks with just Amare and Company were a 1st round TKO this year. Now, with Melo and Mare, there’s only one team I see them even giving a serious problem to at least this year and that’s Miami. Remember what I said about PGs? Chauncey Billups, 2004 NBA Finals MVP. The man knows how to get it done when it counts simply put. Still, much like Orlando did earlier in the year with their trades, the Knicks just got a LOT smaller. Against teams like Boston and Chicago who are incredibly tough down low and able to Windex the glass like nobody’s business, this will hurt the Knicks going forward. (Even with Boston dealing away Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson, I’m not QUITE ready to say it’s a lock. But the series gets more interesting when you consider NY can run like the wind and Boston’s aging bodies cannot. Amended as of 2/27/11)

2) Who profits?
– It’s not the Nuggets, at least not for a very, VERY long time. The Knicks, believe it or not, do not profit from this. While you’re getting a Top 5 talent and easily a Top 10 scorer, you’re giving up your team’s 2nd, 3rd & 4th leading scorers to do so. The Knicks benefit over the long haul because once this team gets a solid core around it…they’re SCARY. Consider this as we go forward…

Boston’s getting older, figure to have at least two years left in them. Miami, still a work in progress and I’ll be blunt. I’ve always believed Carmelo had more clutch in him than LeBron. Now, playoff time, we’re gonna see who’s who. Orlando, has a two year window before Dwight Howard declares his free agency. Chicago, yeah, they’re set. D-Rose, Noah, Booze…they’re all in. Miami, will eventually get it in gear. So short term/rest of this year, nobody really benefits. Knicks get older and smaller, but still have a better supporting cast around its two than Miami has around its three. Who knew?

3) Now what?
– For Denver, losing. Lots of it. Short of Mozgov turning into the first legitimate Russkie powerhouse pulling down 20 & 10, it’s a bust and most likely, George Karl is probably heading for the hills eventually. For the Knicks, while you’re not back yet, congratulations are in order. You’ve finally got a team that’s worth your cash. Now, the only hope is Dolan doesn’t screw things up by bringing back Isiah Thomas from FIU and running Donnie Walsh out of town. Melo & Mare are scary. It’s scarier if Mare stays healthy and Melo’s pilot light gets reignited by playing in The Garden. Now, you’re looking at a place that is now moreso than before, an attractive spot for future free agents. Oh, Blake’s gotta be thrilled that his favorite Russkie can be dunked upon four times a year now going forward.

Alright, time to break down the East.

Top Dogs
– Boston and it’s really not even as close as the standings lead you to believe. The Celts are what I thought the Lakers would be and that’s thoroughly motivated to get back to the Finals. The Celts have put down the pretenders in South Beach thrice this year and for all intents and purposes, will face their staunchest challenges from either Orlando or Chicago. They’ll see one of them in the second round at the very least.

After Boston, I give Chicago the next spot in the pecking order. The acquisition of Boozer has paid off well and Derrick Rose is playing like an MVP. Hell, I’ll even go as far to say that he’s my MVP. Still, this team boasts the kind of depth up front that only Boston has and out West, the Spurs and Lakers. If you doubt them, do so at your own peril. Trust me when I tell ya, Boston wants no part of this team. Just reference the 2009 First Round series and you’ll get my meaning. Miami, is 0-3 against Boston this year. They haven’t done well against the teams they’re gonna have to run through in order to win the conference and take home title #2 this June. If you put your money on them going beyond the second round, just give it to me and save yourself the trouble. Orlando is still that ‘you’re certain they aren’t quite Top Line, but they’re capable of getting there’ squad and they THRIVE on being doubted and underestimated.

(I wrote the above before the trade deadline and didn’t go back to it. Today, the gap’s a lot closer than most think because of the Perkins trade. It’s underrated what having a legitimate big man can do for your team. Mostly every major contender you can think of either has a big man or have big men who are capable of cleaning the glass down low. Those that don’t, well, you saw what happened to the Thundercats in Game 6 last year didn’t ya? Chicago proved on Thursday night that overlooking them is perilous at your own expense. They proved that Miami doesn’t have enough horses to run with them and short of Miami getting a remotely decent PG, this team will find itself being crushed by those that do.)

The Wild, Wild West
– There’s the Spurs, the Mavs and then who knows? The Thundercats are young and talented, but we already knew that. The truest X factor out there, are the Lakers. I’m sorry, losing to Orlando and Charlotte is one thing. Losing to a team you blew out by 55 points though…no. Unacceptable. If the Lakers do indeed flip that switch, they’re going to give us one more really great Spurs/Lakers Western Conference Finals showdown. Dallas, remains shady in my book and incapable of being trusted. I believe they haven’t fully shaken off the 2006 NBA Finals meltdown or the subsequent implosion that came in the 1st round thanks to Nellieball and Golden State circa 2007. The Spurs, if they remain healthy, will be a huge force for the Lake Show or whomever to overcome.

(Today, I’m definitely inclined to amend my previous statement. The Spurs, remain a legitimate threat because of their pedigree and the fact that the Alamo will be rocking late in the Spring. The Mavs are formidable, but I don’t see them having the backbone necessary to make a seriously sustained run that gets them another date with their in-state rivals or even by OKC or Los Angeles. The Lake Show are kinda simple in this regard. If what they’ve done to this point really is them just being bored and that switch gets flipped, it’s bad. If their bench starts performing up to snuff, cancel Memorial Day. They’re winning the West and foreseeably, Phil makes it 3 for 3 in terms of threepeats in the last three decades solidifying his status as the greatest coach of all time. Kobe will draw even with Jordan and even though they’ll still be even in the ring count, Kobe will solidify his spot as the second best ever behind MJ in my book. Note, he overtakes him if he gets #7 and STAYS retired. Jordan really killed himself in my book by coming back with the Wizards.)

The Thundercats and Blazers…are easily the most intriguing teams for me to watch this Spring. Portland continues to have a surplus of youth and with the emergence of LaMarcus Aldridge as Brandon Roy shockingly and unspeakably declines…this team becomes seriously scary for some team that sleeps on them. The Thundercats though from OKC, this be in my mind, your heir apparent to the Lakers & Spurs. Getting Kendrick Perkins along with Nazr Mohammed gives them the low post presence they sorely missed last Spring against the Lake Show. Nate Robinson gives them another gun off the bench alongside the likes of James Harden and company. I really like the prospects of a OKC/LA rematch or even an OKC/SA battle for the first time since the franchise was in Seattle.

I’m not as strong about a C’s/Lake Show rematch as I was at the start of the year. That, I will admit. I didn’t expect the Lake Show to just throw it in cruise control like that, especially considering how John Blaze they were at the start of the year. That, combined with the fact that the Spurs don’t appear to be finished by a longshot and OKC’s hungrier than I thought to avenge last year’s loss…that third straight title doesn’t appear certain and an appearance in the Finals is even more uncertain. I’ll get back with my Finals prediction, there’s one other thing I need to rant on that I won’t do here. (Mainly because it doesn’t pertain to any playoff teams and it’s quasi-personal of sorts.)

LeBron Takes On Cleveland…Again?!

“Merry New Year!!!” – Eddie Murphy, Trading Places

Yeah, I’m back. New Year, same ole Len…sorta. I’m back to rant on a few things, first of which…

LeBron. Look, for anyone who really believs LeBron didn’t deserve his two MVP trophies, look at the Cleveland Cavaliers now. They BLOW. No…that was my thought after LeBron walked in there and straight up eviscerated them 2010 Freddy style. They SUCK. No, I think that’s been the Cavs since that game in which for the first time ever, the crowd had more balls to them than the players they were rooting for. Still, last night against the Lakers…I’m not sure if there’s such a thing after the two things I mentioned to aptly describe what the Cavs really are. Swallow, almost seems like an insult to that particular word at this point. I have coined the “AAU” label for teams in the Association that have a fairly decent, young 25 and under core to them. Cleveland’s a team I label as nothing more than a Practice Squad. Simply put. Other than maybe Jamison and Mo Williams, who in this team could you point to and say, “Yeah, they could be a legitimate starter for some team in the Association” about? Boobie Gibson? Varejao? I think those guys are pretty much reserves AT BEST. Sorry folks, but your team’s done. Byron, sometimes waiting on a great job is better than taking a shit one. I give you three years max before you’re shitcanned or just flat out QUIT.

Then…there’s LeBron. LBJ, let’s keep it basic shall we? I think it was The Undertaker who once said AND I QUOTE…”I’m not awestruck by your presence and I’m certainly not impressed with you.” You guided the Cavs to two straight 60 win seasons on will alone. Yet somehow when it counted, you couldn’t string together the 12 wins necessary to get your team to the NBA Finals, or 16 that were necessary to win it all. No, wait. You got them 12 wins in 2007, then ran out of gas against the Spurs. Since then, 7 postseason wins in 2008, 10 wins in 2009 and last season. ZERO wins in the Finals. If George Steinbrenner were your boss, he’d have slapped the Mr. April tag on you. Because you clearly do your best work when it’s not really that important. You QUIT on the Cavs in Games 5 & 6, something which only Gilbert, myself and maybe a handful of folks caught last Spring. Still, it wasn’t enough to keep Riles, Wade & Bosh from getting you down to South Beach.

So rather than handle your departure with some level of grace, show some humility towards the team that has been rattled by far too much in their sports lives. You take up an hour of television time (two if you count the post talk crap), then wait 28 minutes to announce you’re taking your talents to South Beach. You had to know even if you ran your annual Bike-a-thon through the heart of Cleveland, you wouldn’t be welcome back. EVER. Even after you eviscerated the Cavs in Cleveland, Craig Sager gave you the opportunity to make amends and you regretted NOTHING. I think you would’ve just been better off saying “Fuck Cleveland, I’m glad I left this dump” and called it a day. Or maybe go Samuel L. Jackson ala Time To Kill in saying “YES THEY DESERVE TO BLOW & I HOPE THEY BURN IN HELL!!!”. But alas, you didn’t…least not that vulgar anyway. So let’s speed it forward to last night, shall we? Cleveland plays the Lakers and well, good grief it escalated QUICKLY. 57 points by the Cavs, every Laker starter in double figures. Look, maybe now folks are starting to see what I was talking about with the Cavs all those years when LeBronmania was running wild. Sadly, Clevelanders are coming to the realization that LeBronmania was well due in part to…LEBRON and very little else. The Cavs might be the only team that LeBron could go 1 on 5 with and still WIN. Seriously, they’re that fucking bad. I believed going into the year that the Cavs sans LeBron would probably win 30 games, max. Now I’m thinking even that might be pushing it. I know the Cleveland M.O. from a sports standpoint is “pull em’ in and suck em’ dry”. Tantalize the fans with tons of “maybe, possibly” only to hit them with the “hardly”.

But LeBron all of a sudden, is a “bad guy”? Really? Not in my book. Look, anybody can kick the low man on the totem pole. It really doesn’t take much to tweet laughing against a Cavs team that just got their house, err, rubbles run over by the reigning champs two times over by 54 points. Anybody can get their boy to cut a damn freestyle rap on the fucking WIZARDS who may as well have been Team Ja Rule a few years ago. But where were your clever tweets when Boston came to town and put you in your lane? Twitter must’ve been down then. Or what about when Orlando spanked ya in the 2009 East Finals and you just stormed out of the building like a petulant brat? Nothing to say, huh, Prince? Look, a large part of the reason why i can’t stand rap is because there are too many like you out there. Want a lot while doing very little and get recognized for it. As Jay-Z said in 30 Something, “y’all respect the one who got shot, I respect the shooter”. You’ve been shot repeatedly every year since 2007 and yet, the accolades are nonstop. You’re the King who hasn’t won a single war worth mentioning. You’re winless against the East’s Elite when it counts, namely Orlando and Boston. While you may have shook the Cleveland “aura” or whatever, you’re not winning in the postseason on just namepower alone. If anything, I’d have thought you would’ve figured that much out when you were in Cleveland racking up 60 plus wins the last two seasons and getting ousted before the Finals.

But yeah, heavy is the head of he who wears the crown…or the shoulders of he who carries much HYPE.